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The Electric Vehicle Market
In the early 1900s, the U.S. automobile market was divided among steam-powered cars (40%), electric vehicles (38%), and internal combustion engine (ICE) cars (22%). By 1917, The Wall Street Journal predicted that the emergence of affordable electric cars would transform the auto industry. However, the 1920s ushered in the era of oil, fundamentally shifting the landscape.
Gasoline prices plummeted, and advances in internal combustion engines improved range and efficiency, driving electric vehicles out of the mainstream market. For nearly a century, EVs remained a relic of the past—until Tesla launched the Roadster in 2006, sparking the resurgence of electric cars.
As of 2025, the EV market faces significant challenges, including high costs, limited charging infrastructure, and range anxiety. On top of that, battery manufacturers betting on EV adoption are struggling with financial difficulties. The road to EV dominance is paved with obstacles, and the ICE car still holds its ground, bolstered by oil-focused policies and lower production costs.
The Revival of "Obsolete" Technologies
One of the greatest pitfalls in predicting the future is underestimating the potential comeback of technologies once deemed obsolete. Take IBM’s mainframe computers as an example: once thought to be outdated, they continue to play critical roles in specific industries.
The transition from steamships to internal combustion-powered vessels took over 60 years. Similarly, when Steve Jobs unveiled the iPad, he confidently declared that tablets would replace laptops. Yet, by 2023, global laptop shipments stood firm at 166 million units annually, compared to 135.3 million tablets—a 10% year-over-year decline for tablets.
In the Trump 2.0 era, policies aimed at reducing oil prices may extend the life of ICE vehicles even further. Lower fuel costs could reinforce the competitiveness of ICE cars, making it more challenging for EVs to achieve widespread adoption. Instead of dismissing traditional markets and past technologies, we need to examine the broader context of change itself.
Interactions Between Innovation and Market Dynamics
When disruptive technologies reconfigure markets, incumbent technologies rarely disappear overnight. For instance, internet banking made its debut in the U.S. in October 1995, with the launch of Security First Network Bank, the world’s first internet-only bank (Clark & Lee, 1998).
Despite the rapid rise of digital financial services, U.S. bank branch numbers continued to increase until 2019. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, branch numbers fell only recently, from 96,104 in 2019 to 90,691 in 2023—a modest 5.6% decline.
This trend highlights that the expansion of digital banking doesn’t necessarily lead to the immediate decline of physical branches or ATMs. Customer behavior changes more slowly than anticipated, and a balanced approach is essential to meet diverse needs. Innovation in the marketplace is rarely just about the technology—it’s the result of a complex interplay of factors, from consumer behavior to economic policies.
Revisiting Nokia's Fall
When Apple launched the iPhone in 2007, Nokia still dominated the global mobile phone market. In 2008, Nokia’s Symbian operating system held a 48% market share, far ahead of competitors. But then came Android. By 2012, Android’s market share had skyrocketed to 74%, Apple’s iOS held 18.2%, and Symbian plummeted to just 0.6%.
Fast-forward to 2023: Android remains the dominant player with a 75% market share, followed by iOS at 23%, while other operating systems account for a mere 2%. Android owes its dominance to its open ecosystem and wide array of hardware manufacturers, giving customers more choices and fostering a robust developer environment. Apple, on the other hand, leverages its premium strategy and tightly integrated ecosystem to build loyalty and maintain its stronghold.
Nokia’s downfall illustrates a critical lesson: market success depends not only on technological superiority but also on the strength of an ecosystem and business model. Companies overly focused on short-term financial performance, without the agility to adapt to shifting customer demands and market conditions, are at risk of rapid decline. Even the largest incumbents must remain vigilant; size may buy time, but it doesn’t guarantee survival.
Conclusion
Innovation doesn’t exist in isolation—it’s shaped by the interplay of technology, market forces, and consumer preferences. The lessons from electric vehicles, internet banking, and Nokia remind us that staying ahead requires more than just great technology; it demands a strategic balance of adaptability, foresight, and resilience in a constantly changing world.
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